트럼프, 당신의 파티는 끝났다- 추가/수정

[거사 주]:

2020 대선 이후로 지난 1년 동안 도널드 트럼프의 공화당 내의 인지도가 현저히 추락

- 뻥튄 재산으로 불법 융자, 불법적으로 조작된 세금보고, 1/6 폭동 음모 주동, 백악관 기록 삭제로 법적 소송이 줄줄-

- 거짓말이 난무하여 Twitter/Facebook 에서 쫒겨난 후로 인기의 엄청난 하락(88 million Twitter follwers/35 million Facebook follwers)후로, 본인의 블로그/소셜 미디어를 만들었지만, 인기추락/네거티브 댓글이 점령하여 잠정 폐쇄-

- 공화당 자체보다 그의 인기도가 54%, 1년후 공화당 인기도가 역으로 56%로 상승, 그의 지지율은 36% 이하로 추락중-

- 러시아 침공 초기에 푸틴을 "천재" "예리한 판단" 등등으로 칭송했다가, 무자비한 참화로 바꿔지는 상황으로 바꿔지자, 공화당내에서도 역풍이 불고, 미디어에서 계속 공격하자, 어물거리다가 "--- 푸틴은 smart--" 하다고 말 바꿈-.

- 그의 사기꾼 수준인 "Big Lie"와 "독선"으로 공화당내 핵심 의원/주지사들의 반기(Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron Santis, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Mitch McConnell(상원대표), and Kevin McCarthy(하원대표)on issues such as Ukraine, Covid-19 and crime, 트럼프 지지 의원인 Lindsey Graham도 종종 그의 독설이 " Mistake" 라고 반박)

- 공화당 대선 잠룡들이 눈치 보면서 꿈들 (Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, 게다가 former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan(한국 사위), Pence, DeSantis 등) 

- "America First"/"Make America Great Again" 구호의 탈색. 거액 기부자들의 탈퇴, 그의 비지니스의 몰락, 그가 밀어주는 의원/주지사들의 당선 효과의 반토막. 대부분의 공화당의 의원들은 그의 막강한 입김이 재선에 큰 영향을 준다고 알랑거리고 믿고 있었다.

- 2024년에 Biden 대통령과 재대결을 별렀는데, 아마도 가능치 못하고(WP 기사-29%), 부통령 Kamala Harris의 인기도 50%밑(그녀는 능력 부족인데 Obama의 입김으로 출세, 문대통령 방미때 악수 후에 바지에 손을 닦는 정도의 사고방식이 치명타)이라서 대선후보로 불가능. 트럼프의 복수/설욕전은 물거품이 되면, 누구하고 붙어야 할지 새판을 짜야할 판국에 줄줄이 밀려오는 공화당 대선 후보 물결에 절치부심 

 

For Trump, your party's over

Opinion by Richard N. Bond, updated 12:59 PM ET, Wed March 23, 2022

 

Richard N. Bond is a longtime Republican Party activist. He was chairman of the Republican National Committee from 1992 to 1993. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

 

(CNN)As the 2022 primary season gets underway, those of us who have long opposed former President Donald Trump may finally begin seeing an end to his reign over the Republican Party.

Just consider the current realities Trump faces.

 

His legal woes and their attendant distractions have not gone away. Investigations in New York and Georgia

continue,  and a court filing outlining potential evidence of criminal conspiracy by the January 6 House select committee also looms large. (Trump denies wrongdoing in all.)

 

Meanwhile, Trump, once the master of social media with more than 88 million Twitter followers and 35 million on Facebook before the insurrection, has had disastrous results in creating his own online platforms. He terminated his blog, "From the Desk of Donald J. Trump," after 29 days due to what aides describe as lack of readers and negative press. His recently announced social media network, Truth Social, has suffered from an inept rollout involving technical glitches and a 13-hour site outage.

 

Trump's standing among Republicans continues to weaken. A recent NBC poll shows a significant decline in his hold on the GOP. While previous surveys showed that up to 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say they self-identified as supporters of Trump rather than the Republican Party, the new survey shows that 56% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents consider themselves supporters of the GOP. Only 36% consider themselves supporters of the former President -- a significant marker of Trump fatigue.

 

Trump is sabotaging himself

His behavior and inane remarks have likely contributed to the decline. For example, his early praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, using terms such as "genius" and "pretty savvy," contrasts with President Joe Biden's recent branding of the Russian leader as "a war criminal." A Quinnipiac University poll found that Americans are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has a 64% approval rating. The same survey shows the depth of anti-Putin sentiment: 60% of Americans think that Putin is mentally unstable, again demonstrating how out of step Trump is with the public.

 

Trump's campaign of revenge against Republicans he deems insufficiently loyal, and his maniacal obsession in spreading the "Big Lie" about the 2020 presidential election, only serve as additional vehicles of alienation. Potential heavyweight rivals such as former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas all have broken with Trump recently on issues such as Ukraine, Covid-19 and crime.

 

Trump's endorsement may tip the balance in some important races this year, but it is far from determinative. His endorsed US Senate candidates in North Carolina (Rep. Ted Budd) and Alabama (Rep. Mo Brooks) are both struggling and may not win their party primaries. One of his top targets, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, is leading Trump's candidate, former US Sen. David Perdue, in the upcoming May primary. (Editor's Note: Shortly after publication, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks.)

  

Trump's 'America First' policy is dead

The primary season will prove to be the height of Trump's influence in the GOP. As he has demonstrated over and again, he will claim credit for victory, even in the face of failure. The reality is that some, but not all his endorsed candidates, will win nominations. Some, but not all, will be elected in November. At best, the results for Trump will be mixed.

 

The period from March 2023 to July 2023 will likely seal Trump's fate as a has-been. It's the time when many presidential campaigns launch. During this period in 2015, more than a dozen Republican candidates, including Trump, announced their intention to seek the GOP presidential nomination.

 

Trump rivals such as Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida, and former administration officials such as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may wait for Trump to announce his 2024 intentions. But others such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan may jump in before Trump's decision. And the entrance of Pence or DeSantis absolutely would force his hand -- Trump could not ignore such legitimate contenders.

 

The cumulative effect of all these factors will weaken Trump's resolve. But one major event will end his 2024 aspirations: Joe Biden's potential announcement that he will not seek the presidency again. While Biden has said he would run again if he's "in good health," a Wall Street Journal poll this month finds that only 29% of Americans actually believe Biden will pursue a second term. Biden not running would upend all of Trump's calculations and motivation -- his intense desire for a revenge rematch and his belief that he would win.

Biden's withdrawal would result in a Democrat Party free-for-all, and Trump would not know which Democrat he would face. He may salivate over running against Vice President Kamala Harris, whose approval rating among voters has hovered below 50% since last June, but her nomination is far from certain -- and it may not be worth the risk for him.

 

As legendary NFL quarterback and broadcaster Joseph "Dandy Don" Meredith used to proclaim at the end of every contest: "Turn out the lights. The party's over!"(-)